British Open Picks: Odds, Best Bets at Royal Troon

Golf's oldest major and longest-running tournament is back at Royal Troon Golf Club, where the sport's best players will tee off at the 152nd Open Championship. This fourth and final major tournament of the 2024 season features world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, former Open champ Rory McIlroy and an assortment of PGA Tour stars battling top competitors from other worldwide circuits.

It's been eight years since the Old Course at Royal Troon hosted the Open. Since Henrik Stenson's three-shot victory in 2016, the par-71 course has added another 200 yards to extend to nearly 7,400 total yards. However, the extra distance hasn't eliminated the charm and challenges of this 136-year-old links course.

Explore the latest betting odds for this week's tournament, key details on Royal Troon and my five favorite British Open picks heading into the first round.

2024 Open Championship Betting Odds

No one is surprised seeing Scheffler head to Royal Troon as the betting favorite. The No. 1 ranked golfer added a second Green Jacket in April and boasts 11 top-ten finishes in major tournaments. That said, the Open Championship is historically Scheffler's weakest major, with a T8 finish in 2021 and back-to-back finishes outside the top 20 in 2022 and 2023.

After a brutal loss at last month's U.S. Open, McIlroy returns to Royal Troon seeking his first major since 2014. Unlike Scheffler, Open Championships are McIlroy's specialty. The 35-year-old has one win and five additional top-five finishes at the Open, including a T5 at the Old Course in 2016.

The next group of golfers features 2024 PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele, 2021 Open winner Collin Morikawa and 2024 U.S. Open champ Bryson DeChambeau. You also have elite European players with outstanding British Open track records, including Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrell Hatton.

While the Open Championship heads to a new course every year, certain golfers can play on any links-style course. Bettors shouldn't rule out former Claret Jug winners like Cameron Smith (2022 - St. Andrews), Shane Lowry (2019 - Royal Portrush), Jordan Spieth (2017 - Royal Birkdale) and Louis Oosthuizen (2010 - St. Andrews). Brian Harman also returns to defend his title and become the first repeat Open winner since Padraig Harrington in 2008.

Royal Troon Preview & Key Stats

The Old Course at Royal Troon is a par-71 that starts pleasant but leaves a bitter aftertaste. The front nine opens with three par-4s under 400 yards and primarily faces downwind. Golfers have several scoring opportunities in this stretch, though they'll face some challenges on the 601-yard par-5 6th "Turnberry" and the famous par-3 8th "Postage Stamp," a 123-yard hole with a minuscule margin for error.

Players who struggle on the front nine will have a worse time after the turn. The back nine goes against the wind and features three par-4s over 450 yards, a par-5 16th with a fairway ditch that necessitates a layup and two challenging par-3s. The par-4 11th, known as the "The Railway," is Royal Troon's toughest hole. This 483-yard beast sits adjacent to an actual railway that punishes any golfer who misses their blind tee shot right.

The Old Course prioritizes a few abilities over others. Accuracy off the tee is critical for avoiding the thick fescue rough. Winds can impact high shots, and seemingly good drives with excessive roll can spin into deep fairway bunkers. Expect the top contenders to rely on fairway woods and long irons off the tee instead of traditional drivers.

Ball placement on the smaller-than-average greens will make or break a score. Players must hit accurate approach shots that avoid surrounding bunkers and land in the right areas on the green. Royal Troon's greens have less undulation than other links courses, though they'll still test most of the field.

Stats like Driving Accuracy and Strokes Gained: Approach will be foundational for these British Open picks. Other metrics that should be useful for bettors include Bogey Avoidance and Total Strokes Gained on links courses.

5 Favorite British Open Picks

After assessing the underlying stats, Royal Croon, Open Championship history and other vital information, here are the five golfers I'm throwing a bet on to win the Claret Jug:

Collin Morikawa +1500 (bet365)

Morikawa won two major championships in his first three years on the PGA Tour. Unfortunately, the next two years produced just one tournament win and back-to-back missed cuts at the Open. However, Morikawa heads to Royal Troon looking more like the player we saw lift the Claret Jug at Royal St. George's in 2021.

The 27-year-old has made his last 12 cuts dating back to the Players Championship in March, headlined by a T3 at the Masters, a T4 at the PGA Championship, a solo second at the Memorial and a T4 in last weekend's Scottish Open. Out of this year's 157-man field, Morikawa ranks second in Total: SG, second in driving accuracy and first in distance from the edge of the fairway. He's also become one of the Tour's best putters, registering the second-fewest putts per hole and the sixth-lowest three-putt percentage.

Even after missing his last two Open Championship cuts, Morikawa is third in the field in average strokes gained per round on link courses in the last five years. With this form as dominant as ever and a course tailored to his strengths, Morikawa stands an excellent shot to win his third major.

Viktor Hovland +3500 (bet365)

The 2023 season for Hovland featured two top-seven finishes in a major and a FedEx Cup championship. Although the 26-year-old has only produced one top-ten result in 2024, there's a lot to like about Hovland's chances to win his first major.

Hovland is third in SG: Off-the-Tee among this year's field, trailing Scheffler and Morikawa. The Norweigan has a great approach game, ranking 10th on the PGA Tour from 200-225 yards and 11th from 100-125 yards. His putting falls behind some other golfers at his level, but he's still 26th in the field in average strokes gained on the green.

Hovland has never finished lower than T13 at an Open Championship and ended T4 at St. Andrews in 2022. I'm confident we'll see the world's seventh-ranked golfer put together another great performance this year.

Brooks Koepka +4000 (DraftKings)

It's never wise to discount a five-time major winner like Koepka. The 2023 PGA Championship winner hasn't finished higher than T26 at a major in 2024 but has a solid Open track record with four top-six finishes, most recently finishing T6 at Royal St. George's.

Koepka's experience on links courses goes beyond British Opens. The 34-year-old began his professional career on the European Challenge Tour, so the conditions he'll face at Royal Troon aren't a culture shock. He's also driving the ball well and remains one of the world's best players around the green. Koepka is still someone to consider in every major until further notice.

Patrick Cantlay +4500 (BetMGM)

The last two times Cantlay entered a tournament, he finished T3 at the U.S. Open and T5 at the Travelers Championship. That alone should make him an intriguing betting pick for the 2024 British Open.

Cantlay doesn't lead the field in any particular stat, but he does everything well. Out of this year's Open field, the 32-year-old is 26th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 39th in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Around-the-Green. The eight-time PGA Tour winner has also finished 33rd or better in eight of the last nine majors, including a T8 result at St. Andrews. There's room for improvement, but Cantlay's form is as solid as ever heading into Royal Troon.

Tom Kim +5500 (FanDuel)

At last month's Travelers Championship, Kim took Scheffler to a playoff before finishing in second place. Kim's 22-under score at TPC River Highlands showcased the 22-year-old's talent and ability to win a major in the near future.

Kim is steady off the tee, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and fifth in distance from the edge of the fairway. He's elite in the 125-150 range but can hold his own on any iron shot. And while this is only his third Open Championship, he finished T2 at Royal Liverpool last year. Kim is someone to watch this week.

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Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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